The Paris agreement, however, refers to a sustained planetary average of 1.5 ✬ warming - not just the average for a single year, which alone could be anomalously hotter or cooler than the longer-term average. This treaty declared the goal of keeping the global average temperature well below 2 ✬ above pre-industrial levels, with a preferred limit of 1.5 ✬. The famous 1.5 ✬ figure, widely quoted as the desired ‘maximum’ for planetary warming, stems from the 2015 United Nations Paris agreement on climate change. But it’s not quite the milestone most people mean when they talk about 1.5 ✬ of warming - for that, we probably have about a decade to go. Reaching 1.5 ✬ of warming in a single year will be a landmark moment for the planet, which in 2022 was about 1.15 ✬ warmer than in pre-industrial times. There’s a 66% chance that the annual global average temperature will hit 1.5 ✬ above pre-industrial temperatures at some time in the next five years, according to a World Meteorological Organization report released on 17 May. Temperatures soared in India in April: heatwaves become more likely as the planet heats up.
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